New Studies Require Grain Of Salt

   I wrote a piece over a year ago entitled “The Matrix” in which I made a comparison between the hit movie and the reality of today’s information sources. People still read and watch and listen to “the News” and believe that which they absorb from their preferred media. The way the “news” is presented these days, it’s no wonder prescription, mood-altering drugs are so common and so-called diseases such as bi- polarism are widely “accepted” terms.      We are being pulled in several different directions at once by what we “learn”, all the while absolutely convinced that our new knowledge is concrete. Ironically, the only stable people left behind in this educational march are those who learn slowly and deliberately, relying on what they knew with certainty before the onslaught of the modern age to anchor them in an actual reality.


 

     Case in point:

 Global warming melts away hurricanes – study
published: Monday | January 28, 2008 
A new study says rising ocean temperatures linked to global warming could decrease the number of hurricanes making landfall in the Caribbean.

The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, a publication of the American Geophysical Union, challenges recent research that suggests global warming could be contributing to an increase in the frequency and the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes.

It reaffirmed earlier views that warmer sea waters might result in atmospheric instabilities that could prevent tropical storms from forming.


 

      Ah yes, those “earlier views” that had so many readers convinced beyond a doubt that somehow a world without powerful storms was a sign of impending doom. Moreover, these same people, armed with the unassailable “knowledge” of those very studies, marched out and did verbal battle with anyone they deemed uneducated on the subject. What of the willing dupes who may have been swayed by those arguments? Well, they became as the kite tail, following a path long forgotten by the kite itself. Hence the need for Zoloft, e.g. To this day, they zig while the leaders zag.

     Here’s why, from 2½ years prior:



 

Global warming is fueling nastier storms, expert says

     By Dan Vergano, USA TODAY

Posted 7/31/2005 1:30 PM     Updated 8/1/2005 11:33 AM

Hurricanes have grown fiercer in recent decades, spurred by global warming, and even tougher storms are likely on the way, a researcher predicts.

In his new study, ocean climatologist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, suggests that the power of big ocean storms has increased and will continue to do so, even if their numbers stay the same.

The analysis, released online Monday by the journal Nature, confounds some past studies that had indicated that increasing average temperatures worldwide over this century — a United Nations climate panel has projected that temperatures will rise from 2 to 10 degrees worldwide by 2100 — would have little effect on hurricanes.


 

      What I find enormously humorous is the fact that the folks on the furthest tip of the tail, far from the kite, will insist that once again they have the proof they need to silence those of us who would dare to scoff at their Don Quixote-like machinations.

     Just for fun, let’s take a look at what William Gray, who is often called the World’s Most Famous Hurricane Expert, has to say about all of this:



 

    

“I am of the opinion that this is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people,” he says when I visit him in his office on a sunny spring afternoon.

He has testified about this to the United States Senate. He has written magazine articles, given speeches, done everything he could to get the message out. His scientific position relies heavily on what is known as the Argument From Authority. He’s the authority.

“I’ve been in meteorology over 50 years. I’ve worked damn hard, and I’ve been around. My feeling is some of us older guys who’ve been around have not been asked about this. It’s sort of a baby boomer, yuppie thing.”

Gray believes in the obs. The observations. Direct measurements. Numerical models can’t be trusted. Equation pushers with fancy computers aren’t the equals of scientists who fly into hurricanes.

“Few people know what I know. I’ve been in the tropics, I’ve flown in airplanes into storms. I’ve done studies of convection, cloud clusters and how the moist process works. I don’t think anybody in the world understands how the atmosphere functions better than me.”

In just three, five, maybe eight years, he says, the world will begin to cool again.


 

     Will someone please get a basketful of Zoloft for Kerry Emanuel? I’ll just stay here and mind the anchor…

-Woody

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